How Wendy Davis Can Become the Next Governor of Texas: A Mathematical Proof

Wendy Davis announces the start of her campaign for governor.    photo by Paul Moseley/Newscom
Wendy Davis announced the start of her campaign for governor on Thursday. photo by Paul Moseley/Newscom

To determine Wendy Davis’ chances to be elected the next governor of Texas, our staff did the math in October issue of D Magazine:

2,102,606

votes for Bill White in 2010

Bill White hit a mere 42.3 percent of the vote against Ricky Perry in 2010, setting the high watermark of recent nonpresidential Democratic performance. Sound bad? It is. But four years later, opportunities abound for a stronger candidate with a strong field operation.

Dem: 2,102,606 // GOP: 2,733,784

136,689

GOP women

Carry the battle to the suburbs. Democrats have an opening with women’s issues, with the GOP’s crony capitalism, and with its benign neglect of health issues, education, and infrastructure. Switch 5 percent of GOP votes.

Dem: 2,239,295 // GOP: 2,597,095

212,512

Hispanic voters

In 2010, 43.36 percent of registered Hispanics voted, or 1,012,000. The number has hovered in the same range since 2002 when it was 982,000. Meanwhile, Hispanic population has soared. Adding 30 percent to Hispanic vote total would add 303,600 voters, 70 percent of whom would vote Dem.

Dem: 2,451,807 // GOP: 2,688,175

1,239,366

new voters

In 2012, only 29 percent of under-29 Texans voted. Obama won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida by increasing youth turnout to 50 percent. There are 4,766,792 Texans 18 to 29 years old. By increasing turnout to only 40 percent and capturing 65 percent (as they did in other states), Dems take the prize.

Dem: 3,691,173 // GOP: 3,355,526

3,691,173

is Wendy Davis’ magic number.

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