Pete Sessions’ Seat Could Soon Be Turning Hot

Since we’ve been talking a lot about the shifting demographics of Texas, let’s focus that energy on a shift happening right here in Dallas.

The Morning News (paywalled) broke down the changes in Congressional District 32, the one currently represented by Pete Sessions. As you can see on the map, it’s a wild district, one that represents tony whites in the Park Cities and a large Hispanic base in Irving and northwest Dallas Richardson and Garland. That dichotomy, and the growing Hispanic population within the district, could mean trouble in the future, the News hints.

“The district’s Hispanic-origin population will grow from 25.6 percent to 29.7 percent by 2016 and will only continue in years to come, according to population projections from Esri, a leading provider of demographic software and data. The percentage of registered voters in the district with Spanish surnames grew from 7.3 percent of eligible voters in 2002 to 8.8 percent in 2010.”

But not so fast.

“The big takeaway, looking at the last couple of elections in Texas, is that things are changing demographically – and that certainly has political implications,” SMU political scientist Matthew Wilson said. “But the partisan levels of those implications aren’t rising as quickly as the Democrats had hoped for.

“Change is slow, and looking at 2014 or 2016 as a tipping point might be getting ahead of the game a little bit.”

Sessions took 58 percent of the Nov. 6 vote; Democratic challenger Katherine McGovern drew 39 percent. But then again, Jason Villalba could be waiting around the corner. 

Update: I’m an idiot and forgot to use the new district map. It’s fixed.