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An Admittedly Myopic Recap of the Greenville Avenue St. Patrick’s Day Parade Festivities

By myopic, I mean my recap will not extend much beyond the patio at the Barley House (well, except we’re going to talk about a transportation snafu involving DART). Anyway, Eric asked me yesterday to answer five questions about the Greenville Avenue St. Patrick’s Day Parade. After the jump, I’ll do my best.

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There’s No Pleasing Local Agricultural Bankers

In December I noted that the bankers of North Central Texas surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its quarterly agricultural credit report were pleading for rain (!)

This quarter’s report presents a very different picture in the comments:

We have gone from one extreme to the other. Wet conditions are hindering the completion of the harvest as well as cattle feeding.

Perhaps they’re more sedate because rural land values didn’t drop nearly as much (scroll down)this time around. Though they’re still down.

Fort Worth Fund Manager Makes Big Bucks on Greece’s Troubles

The Wall Street Journal writes today about Mark Hart III of Fort Worth, whose Corriente Advisors has apparently returned big profits to investors by capitalizing on economic woes in Europe.

They started a dedicated fund, the European Divergence Fund LP, to spend about $250 million in a wager against European debt. The fund’s message in a presentation to investors as the financial crisis intensified in 2008: European debt is “the other shoe to drop.”

Finally, How to Save Downtown

It turns out to be really simple: we just need to host 126 NBA All Star Games a year. You see, I just got back from a detour down Main St. to see what the scene looked like, and it took me 30 minutes to go from Pearl to Ervay. Let me say that again: 30 minutes. Pearl. To Harwood. To St. Paul. To Ervay. Three blocks. And let me just say, Dallas looked pretty damn sexy all gridlocked-up in the snow.

Wham-Mu: A ‘Strange and Spectacular’ One-Weekend Show Coming to an Abandoned Bank Building Near You

Remember all those drive-thru banks that were popping up a few years ago, just before the bottom fell out on the financial world? Now that many of their owners have been wiped out of existence, someone has to deal with them. One WaMu building on Greenville Avenue near Central Market is being dealt with quite nicely. On February 20, more than a dozen artists will open a two-day exhibition called “Modern Ruin” in the never opened, never used, yet completely finished space. The catch: two days after the show opens, the bank building is going to be demolished. The release, as well as an impressive list of participating artists (which includes FrontRow contributor Noah Simblist) is after the jump.

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Leading Off (2/1/10)

1. The City Council’s Economic Development committee will get an update on the Downtown Dallas 360 plan today. Which plan, you ask? I know, it is hard to keep track. This is the one that kicked-off last October and is focused on building connectivity downtown. Though I’m plan-weary, I like the approach of the 360 team. Not so Car Free in Big D. The blog drags out nifty, homespun graphics to prove the tough truth: the real downtown solution, dismantling the highway ring, will never happen.

2. It’s 2010, and we shall all be counted. Except perhaps not all of us. The Washington Post reports that in a number of major U.S. cities, including Dallas, the census’ efforts to reach out to immigrants are inadequate.

3. I ran into an old friend a few weeks ago who is finishing up nursing school. That’s good, I said. I heard nursing is recession-proof. Not so, reports the Star-Telegram. And the tough times trod on.

Ross Perot Jr. Says Bankers Deserve Their Salaries

He’s at the Davos World Economic Forum in Switzerland, and the Wall Street Journal asked him about the mood there. “Better than last year,” he replied.

He also said the heads of JPMorgan and Goldman have earned their pay.

“If shareholders don’t like the salaries, don’t buy the stock.”

Economist Notes ‘Unprecedented’ Start For Cowboys Stadium

Craig Depken is a sports economist and associate professor at the University of North Carolina–Charlotte. He worked previously at the University of Texas at Arlington for 11 years.

Depken was himself an Arlington resident several years back, when voters were deciding whether they should pony up $325 million to pay for the new Cowboys Stadium. Like most sports economists, he was skeptical about some claims made by proponents of public financing for the stadium.

But he’s been monitoring the first six months of activity out at Jerry World, and while the jury remains out on whether Arlington got a good deal, Depken says we’re seeing something “unprecedented” happening.

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Las Colinas As Development Model

Speaking of cities of the future, Indianapolis is trying to get in on the game with their new airport development, which is being styled as an “aerotropolis.” One of their models: the “postmodern urban development” called Las Colinas.

UT-Dallas Prof Sings of Economic Woe (I Think)

Was casting about the InterWeb for something unrelated today when I came across Nathan Berg.  He’s an economics professor at UT-Dallas, a former Fulbright scholar, and a musician who fronts a band called Halliburton(s). He’s been in the news in recent years protesting the Iraq War.

His songwriting has turned its attention to the current economic troubles. I’m not sure which moment I enjoy more in the video for “Right Now” (embedded below): The Wealth of Nations and John Maynard Keynes being read by men at urinals, or when Berg puts a question mark on a  “Job Fair” sign. He’s making a profound statement? I report. You decide.

Fed Beige Book Says Dallas Region Steady

The newest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve is out. “Slow but steady” seems to sum up where the Dallas District of the Fed sits now. Most other regions of the country were characterized similarly.

The “historically low” levels in commercial real estate continue for now: “Office and industrial leasing activity remained feeble. Contacts said, ‘nothing is going on and business is very slow.’”

High-tech manufacturing was a bright spot, with growth in demand. Some of that was attributed to the release of Windows 7 driving PC sales:  “The outlook is for continued moderate to strong growth over the next six months.”

Retailers said they had a “reasonable” holiday season: up over 2008, but not back to 2007 levels. They’re “cautiously optimistic.”

And home sales are up over the last six months. But “Several contacts said smaller builders were still unable to access credit to finance new construction. Outlooks were guarded but optimistic.”

The Beige Book features the findings of a Federal Reserve survey of contacts in various industries. It’s conducted and released the first and last month of each quarter.

Dallas Fed Prez Warns of Weimar-Like Inflation

So after that fella in Mesquite raised the specter of Hitler, Federal Reserve of Dallas president Richard Fisher made his own reference to German history, when he warned of the possibility of an America where we’ll buy a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrow full of dollars, during  a speech to the Waco Business League yesterday.

Bemoaning the economic risks of large government deficits, Fisher said attempts to print money to finance spending always prove disastrous.

“We know from history that when fiscal authorities turn to the monetary authority to monetize their debts, the result is inevitably inflation and financial ruin,” Fisher told the Waco Business League.

“That is the lesson learned from Ancient Rome, from Weimar Germany, from Nationalist Argentina and, in its most egregious present form, from modern Zimbabwe.”

A friend of mine is moving all his money into Krugerrands. Should I invest in a wheelbarrow?

Big Brothers, Sisters to Host Economic Forum

Will every nonprofit agency in Dallas eventually sport T. Boone Pickens’ name? First they slap it on the new Senior Source headquarters building, where my wife works. Then he takes over the YMCA downtown. Now a press release comes reminding me that he’s got his own Hall of Fame with Big Brothers Big Sisters. (If Mr. Pickens would like to have me tattoo his name on my body in exchange for monetary considerations, I’m open to talks.)

Though it launched in January 2008, the T. Boone Pickens Mentoring Hall of Fame will induct its first member next week. The honor goes to Don Carty, the chairman of Virgin America, at the end of an event discussing the future of our nation’s economy at the Tower Club on Jan. 12.

Along with Carty and Pickens, attendees will get to hear speakers from the Federal Reserve, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, and Frisco Mayor Maher Maso.

Neiman’s, Luxury Retail Market on the Rebound?

Sure, Neiman Marcus recently had some very bad news, that its fiscal first-quarter profits were down 34 percent. But Mint.com, a site that helps people track their finances, says its numbers show that the luxury retail market is on the rebound. See here:

By aggregating date from 1 million of their users, Mint claims to have a “representative sampling of U.S. consumers.” The chart shows that, for these luxury retailers, spending per user is coming back up to 2008 levels late in the year. But since the bottom didn’t really fall out of the market until late 2008, isn’t it easier for the retailers to look better compared to last year when it comes to these October and November numbers, as opposed to the first quarter of 2008?

Plus shouldn’t we discount all the data on this chart, since they’re classifying Banana Republic as a “luxury retailer?”

North Central Texas Farmland Value Falling!

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas yesterday issued its quarterly survey of agricultural credit conditions. Still doesn’t look that good for farmers and ranchers. Drought conditions persist, even with some recent relief. Bankers reported that loan repayment rates have fallen, and a greater percentage of them expect farmland values to drop over the next three months.

But what I found most interesting is that the bankers in North Central Texas (where we’re situated) used the most expressive language, and the most expressive punctuation (!), among any of the 13 regions of the Eleventh Federal Reserve District. Their quoted comments:

Producers are realizing that this drought, which started in May 2008 and has continued through September 2009, may rival the legendary drought of the 1950s. Cattle herd liquidation is in high gear. Crop yields are less than 50 percent of original projections, and farmers are still waiting for 2008 USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) government disaster payments.

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Today’s Time Waste: the Recovery Act Website

I was just reading a newsletter out of Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson’s camp bragging about how the 30th District has so far received more than $360 million in federal funds from the Recovery Act. That seemed like a lot of cash to me, so I navigated my computer’s browser to the part of the Internet that houses the government’s website that tracks all that money. If you’re busy today, whatever you do, don’t go to www.recovery.gov. Because that’s one badass website. If you dig maps — and who doesn’t? — that thing will have you clicking around for most of the morning. For instance, if you go here, you can zoom in on North Texas and click around to see where the federal dollars are going. Did you know SMU has gotten nearly $1.4 million, which it says created or saved 20.35 jobs? Meanwhile, the University of Dallas has gotten only $48,000, which it says created or saved no fewer than 28 jobs. What the hell is going on here? I’m not sure, but it sounds like I’d rather work at SMU (and make about $68,000 a year) than the University of Dallas ($1,700).

Lone Star Funds Raises $1.2B After Cutting Fees

Bloomberg reports that Dallas-based Lone Star Funds — which you may remember got into some trouble with the South Koreans a couple years ago — has managed to raise $1.2 billion for two of its funds that will invest in distressed financial institutions and real estate. They’re hoping to collect $20 billion in total.

This news comes a few weeks after the Wall Street Journal reported that Lone Star had cut its fees by more than 50 percent to spur investment. Among the new money coming to John Grayken’s private-equity firm is $400 million from the Oregon public-employee pension fund. They’re expecting big returns:

Lone Star’s two new funds, Fund VII and Real Estate Fund II, are targeting 25% average annual returns through investments in distressed commercial, residential and corporate debt. Lone Star’s Mr. Grayken told the Oregon pension-fund board that he saw an “unprecedented period of supply” of distressed debt and that he would have few competitors in buying it.

Mr. Grayken founded Lone Star in 1995, and Oregon, which has invested in all of his funds, says it expects to gain an average annual return of 29% from those investments.

Exxon Mobil Says We Need More Energy

The giant oil company said, in a report it issued today, that energy demand worldwide will increase by 35% by 2030 (compared to 2005). It won’t be because of us.

Sure, we North Americans suck up nearly twice as many BTUs per person per day (740,000) than people in any other region of the world. But we’re going to make such terrific gains in energy efficiency that Exxon projects developed countries like ours will actually be using slightly less energy in 2030, despite our economies growing 50 percent larger by then.

It’s those still-developing countries that are going to need a lot more power than than they use now. For example, according to the report, 1.5 billion people in the world have no access to electricity at all. That might need to change. It probably should.

Dallas Fed: Commercial Real Estate ‘Historically Low’

Today’s the day for the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book, a survey of the state of the economy that they do eight times a year. In general, there’s cautious optimism with plenty of signs of slight improvement. But factor, in addition to slow progress on bringing back jobs, came through loud and clear as a concern: commercial real estate.

This was particularly true in the Dallas District, where “construction was at ‘historically low levels.’” In the rest of the country, commercial real estate conditions were characterized as “weak” or “deteriorating.” This offset the hope that exists in some arenas, like manufacturing:

The outlook in the Dallas District was mixed, with most manufacturers expressing cautious optimism about the near term and construction-related manufacturers expressing pessimism about the future largely due to expectations of prolonged weakness in commercial real estate.

Pawn Shops Vital to North Texans’ Finances

At least that’s what’s suggested by this tidbit from CNNMoney.com’s story about an FDIC survey that shows that 17 million Americans don’t have a bank account:

And while Texas is densely populated with banks, nearly a quarter of households in the Dallas-Forth Worth area have gone to a pawn shop or check cashing company recently to carry out a simple financial transaction.

Should You Walk Out on Your Mortgage?

Dallas foreclosures are up 30% from a year ago, breaking the record for the region. Homeowners trying to renegotiate their mortgages to get a lower monthly payment will likely encounter a puzzle: the mortgage company has no interest in making a deal. Why? Because the company that services the mortgage doesn’t own it and actually makes more money if the homeowner is delinquent. The system is rigged, says one law professor, and that leaves the homeowner with only one option: walk away.

Leading Off (11/13/09)

1. Our good friend from California, Lazy Man, should be happy: North Texas is apparently being punished for having tollways. Side note: Which of these stories, on the same subject, would you be more likely to read: One in which Dallas-Fort Worth leaders ”face funding roadblocks” or one in which Dallas-Fort Worth is  ”getting shafted on road projects” ? Doesn’t the Star-T win that headline battle in a walk?

2. Another week, another study ranking our relative economic strength against other metropolitan areas nationwide. This time the Milken Institute puts us at No. 13. That’s right behind Fort Worth (yes, they dared to separate the twins) at No. 12. And neither of us even make the top five in the state of Texas. Killeen and McAllen even finish ahead of us. The rankings claim to be based on job, wage, and technology growth.

3. Joel Miller of McKinney is hungry. He hasn’t eaten all month, and doesn’t plan to eat until Thanksgiving. The pastor is facing some of the same temptations that plagued Jesus during his 40 days in the wilderness. It’s like a passage straight out of the Gospel of Luke: “One day the distinct smell of bacon struck him, despite the lack of a breakfast joint in the area, and another saw a tray full of free sandwiches paraded before his eyes.” Somebody, please, take the man some food.

Why California Lags Texas

William Voegeli in this report in City Journal comparing the two states finds that California has a higher revenue per citizen than Texas ($11,160 vs. $7,558) but accomplishes less with the money. On education:

According to a report issued earlier this year by McKinsey & Company, Texas students “are, on average, one to two years of learning ahead of California students of the same age,” though expenditures per public school student are 12 percent higher in California.

What’s the reason for the disparity?

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Dallas-Fort Worth 5th Strongest Metro Area

Using rankings set by Brookings Institution, BusinessWeek presents the 40 strongest U.S. metropolitan economies. We rank No. 5, given props for being “sprawling, vibrant, and diverse.”

But we’re behind two other Texas cities: San Antonio (No. 1) and Austin (No. 2). And we’re behind two other areas in our region of the country: Oklahoma City (No. 3) and Little Rock (No. 4)

Forbes: “Recession-Proof” Dallas-Fort Worth a Good Place to Retire In?

Listmania seems to have finally gotten to Forbes.  According to this one, Dallas-Fort Worth is the second best “recession-proof” city to retire in. Atlanta is first, Tampa is third, Houston is fourth, and Austin and St. Louis (St. Louis?) are tied for fifth.

First, I question the use of the term “recession-proof.” Dallas may have been hit less dramatically than some other metro areas, but that hardly means we haven’t been hit at all. 

Secondly, and more confoundingly, if I’m retired, why do I care whether my city is suffering a recession?  I mean, I’m retired, right? The national recession may affect my stocks, bonds, and real estate assets, but what has that got to do with where I live? If anything, doesn’t it mean there are more people are available to mow my lawn?  Wouldn’t it drive labor and other costs down? In other words, wouldn’t a retired person rather live in a city that is experiencing a recession?