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Why Texas Won’t Go Democratic Soon

A terrific analysis from the Georgetown Public Policy Review spells out the reasons why Texas is likely to remain GOP red even though it is one of only four minority-majority states in the Union.

A quick summary:

(1) Texas Hispanics are younger and poorer than the general population, two qualities that reduce voter participation. Against a national Hispanic turnout of 50 percent, Texas Hispanics only turn out at rate of 38 percent.

(2) Republicans have been recruiting Hispanic candidates like crazy.

(3) Money. Texas Democrats don’t have any. To raise Hispanic voting rates, they need the kind of ground game mounted by the Obama campaign on the national level. That takes investment. Obama spent nearly a billion dollars on his, mostly centered on seven swing states. Why should the national Democrats commit to such a huge and expensive effort in Texas when they can win without it?