One Slip of Paper May Have Stunted Democratic Inroads in Texas

Wick raised the question earlier this morning: How could Democrats take over Texas? It’s a longshot, but a data-based, volunteer-driven organization could go a long way. That road, though, may have just gotten harder. Yesterday, Texas state senators drew slips of paper for their terms. Half received two-year terms, half four-year terms. Wendy Davis, state senator from Fort Worth, drew a two-year term. The Statesman explains how this complicates the Democratic plan going forward:

Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, who just won a narrow election to a second term over Rep. Mark Shelton, is a rising star in the Democratic Party, already being touted as probably the most credible statewide standard-bearer in 2014. Not that she could be elected governor in 2014. Jones rates the chances of that happening at “zero.” But with national fundraising appeal, she could run a strong campaign and set the stage for real Democratic charge – perhaps, [Rice University political scientist Mark] Jones said, with San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro running for governor and Davis for lieutenant governor – in 2018. (Castro has told FOX News Latino, “if the voters will have me, I will be mayor of San Antonio until 2017.”) .

As of Wednesday, that scenario is far more complicated, said Jones, and all because of a slip of paper inside a capsule inside of an envelope.

Now, Davis would have to surrender her Senate seat to run statewide, which would undo the whole point of using 2014 to build to 2018, and would also put her Senate seat at risk, especially in a year that doesn’t coincide with a presidential election, which helps pull out Democratic votes. Even Davis will have a little tougher time getting re-elected in 2014 than she presumably would have had in 2016, said Jones.

“We danced a jig,” state GOP Chairman Steve Munisteri told the Star-Telegram.