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Who Will Win the NFC East?

Remaining schedules, as of today. The Eagles have been excluded for humane purposes:

Cowboys:                            Giants:                                Redskins:
7-6, 3-2 in division              8-5, 2-3 in division            7-6, 3-1 in division

Pittsburgh (7-6)                   Atlanta (11-2)                      Cleveland (5-8)
New Orleans (5-8)              Baltimore (9-4)                   Philadelphia (4-9)
Washington (7-6)               Philadelphia (4-9)              Dallas (7-6)

Here’s how it shakes out. Cowboys lose to Pittsburgh, beat New Orleans, lose to Washington. That puts them at 9-7 8-8, 3-3 in division. Giants lose to Atlanta, beat Baltimore, then, when they need to win to make the playoffs, choke in Philadelphia. 9-7, 2-4 in division.

The Skins are the toughest to call. Maybe they lose next week in Cleveland, then RG III comes back and they beat Philly and Dallas. 9-7, with a 5-1 divisional record.

That leaves all three two teams at 9-7, with wildly different divisional records. Washington (improbably, unbelievably) wins the division in a landslide, actually, from a divisional-record standpoint, and if the Cowboys win one of the two games I have them losing, they could slip in with the second wild card spot, provided Chicago continues its slide.

Current odds to make the playoffs:

Giants- 63 percent chance
Redskins- 49 percent chance
Cowboys- 36 percent chance

Fun.

Update: I am indeed terrible with the math.