Yu Darvish: Why The Texas Rangers Are Willing to Spend More Than $100 Million Dollars on Him

Who needs the most interesting man in the world when you can have Yu Darvish? As mentioned in this morning’s Leading Off, news reports say that your Texas Rangers offered $51.7 million for the right to be the only team in Major League Baseball that can sign the best pitcher in Japanese baseball. It’s expected to take something like a five-year deal worth another  $75 million or so to get Darvish to summer in Arlington. (The amount is similar to what they apparently weren’t willing to offer the now-departed C.J. Wilson.)

This for a guy who has never pitched a day in the big leagues. The Japanese leagues are considered to have a high quality of play, but more on par with the high minor leagues in the states than with MLB. Pitchers there don’t have to pitch as often, or for as many innings in a season as they do here. And their ball is smaller.

So what’s being said about the Rangers’ risky move? A sampling:

The Observer’s Sam Merten is nervous:  “And especially when, well, we have absolutely no idea what Darvish can do in the bigs. Zip. Zero. Nada. Sure, he had impressive stats in Japan — 18-6 record with a 1.44 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 276 strikeouts in 232 innings with 10 complete games and six shutouts in 2011 — but that’s in the same league where MLB rejects like Alex Cabrera and Tuffy Rhodes have posted 55-homer seasons.”

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports calls it a “landmark moment” for the Rangers:  “But, to acquire one of the most celebrated pitchers in the world, they won’t lose prospects, won’t lose draft picks, won’t need to convince him — as they would a major league free agent — to choose the hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark over a more forgiving pitching environment. For Darvish, it’s the Rangers or else, at least if he wants to pitch in the majors next season. The risk for the Rangers, of course, is that he will turn out to be the latest overhyped, overpaid Japanese pitcher, joining a list that includes Hideki Irabu, Daisuke Matsuzaka and others.”

The New York Times leads with the glass half full: “In successive off-seasons, the Texas Rangers watched as the aces of their pitching staff left them in free agency; first Cliff Lee, then C. J. Wilson. But now Texas is in a position to strike back with a bold international signing that could restore some punch and flair to its rotation.”

ESPN.com projects decent MLB numbers for Yarvish. And warns against his possible downside. But: “Even with the risk associated with signing a Japanese pitcher, the chances are very good that the Rangers will be getting a star pitcher for years to come. In Darvish’s favor is that he’s been more successful in Japan than any other migrated hurler. Despite only being 25 and pitching in NPB since age 19, Darvish has a career 1.99 ERA in Japan at ages when most pitchers are still learning their craft. Matsuzaka was a star in Japan as well, with the lowest Japanese ERA of any starter to come over, but even his 2.95 ERA in Japan pales in comparison.”

Former MLB GM Jim Bowden says Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels’ reputation is on the line: “This type of signing is the highest possible risk with the highest possible reward. Frankly, it’s the type of move that can make or break a general manager’s career.”

Baseball Nation likes the depth the signing would give the Rangers:  ”Darvish might seem like a luxury for Texas given they already had a full rotation, but as teams like the Red Sox in 2011 remind us, depth is key to surviving the whole season. Darvish gives them depth, and Ogando gives them a better backup plan than anyone else in the majors. Depth is one reason the Rangers have made two consecutive World Series, and even with Wilson moving on, depth will be a strong suit for them once more.”