Something like that. Yesterday’s Financial Times had a piece about how Dallas might serve as a model for how the American economy can move forward. Our fair city is having a “normal recovery” while the rest of the nation is stuck with a “speed limit” recovery, the paper says. (Check out the oddly simplistic photo illustration they used to sum up this idea.)
The reasons they give you’ve probably heard before: the 1980s banking depression in Texas made our bankers less likely to pursue risky practices, the rise in oil prices is a boost to our energy industry even as it’s a pain for those of us at the pump, and we Texans are just so gosh-darn optimistic.
Within these many words of analysis by a respected financial newspaper, there are some strange (yet standard) tactics for underlining points. For instance, how’s the local housing market doing? Let’s ask a real estate agent — after all, they’re never prone to exaggeration. (It’s going “gangbusters,” by the way.) And how’s the Dallas economy as a whole? Let’s count cranes downtown:
Crane counting is an economic indicator that works anywhere. At the height of the 2005-06 boom you could see 11 of them from the windows of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. In the recession that followed, they all vanished.
Look out at downtown Dallas today and you will count six cranes. There is a recovery under way in this city at the heart of Texas, at the heart of America.
So what does it say about us that three of those cranes, as of yesterday, were working on First Baptist Church?
9 comments
Crane counting also works well if you are Steve Brown and actual data scares you.
The story of Dallas’ (really, our region’s) strong-ish economy is its diversity. Also, it was buoyed by the energy industry during the recession.
I don’t understand FT’s comment that, “banks in Texas made fewer bad loans, were less likely to fail, and lost less of their capital during the recession.”
A majority of capital for municipalities, corporations and consumers comes from national and international financial firms, not regional banks like the 1980s.
First Baptist Church is going to be embarrassingly gaudy. Just saying…
I doubt that there were 3 cranes on the First Baptist site when that story was written, but it’s worth noting that none of the cranes downtown are traditionally financed buildings. You have First Baptist, Museum Tower, City Performance Hall and Perot Museum which are all financed by private donations or, in MT’s case, Dallas Police & Fire Pension Fund.
The only cranes in the downtown area that are a true sign or recovery are the apartments going up on Ross Ave and the one for a 20+ story tower in the Design District.
There are also 3 cranes working on the GWB Pres Library, and I believe 3 other cranes working on the New Parkland… What does all that mean? I’m not sure, but Go Mavs!
As a real estate broker here your comment of, “Let’s ask a real estate agent — after all, they’re never prone to exaggeration. (It’s going “gangbusters,” by the way.)really doesn’t make any sense. Are you speaking to buyers and builders on a daily basis? If you are that’s great!
But if you what a real, un biased look at what is happening go to secondshelters.com and it will give you the info on DFW that you are looking for.
Also, I believe I saw a Zac Crain on my way to lunch. Gangbusters indeed.
I’m struggling to figure out what/where the other cranes might be: Convention Center Hotel, Nature/Science Museum, Dallas Baptist, and Hunt-Hill Bridge, and Parkland (is that downtown) are the only possibilities. All of which are subsidized or donated charitably. The city won’t truly come back (and what is back? back to the future?) until downtown development can be profitable without subsidy and with taxable floor-area downtown.
There are also 3 cranes working on the GWB Pres Library, and I believe 3 other cranes working on the New Parkland… What does all that mean? I’m not sure, but Go Mavs!
Double Cranebow!?!? WHAT DOES IT MEAN!?!?!