Rick Perry, Bill White Tied, New Poll Says

A new poll by Public Policy Polling says the governor and his challenger are neck and neck at 43 percent.  A Rasmussen poll five days ago said it stands at Perry 48 percent, White 40.

 Rasmussen says 53 percent approve of the job Perry is doing; Public Policy pegs his approval at 36 percent. If Rasmussen is right, Perry has made an improbably  strong comeback from the 39 percent of the vote he got in 2006. If Public Policy is more accurate with a number closer to the percentage Perry actually achieved four years ago, White has a real shot at winning the thing.

So which poll is right? It depends on who captured the best group of “likely voters.” Rasmussen provides no information on how it screens. Public Policy says it only approaches people who voted at least once in the last three elections., which seems generous for a mid-term election. On the other hand, Rasmussen had been criticized in the polling industry for using automated calls and is often regarded as an outlier. I don’t see any information on how Public Policy conducted its poll.

There are two flies in the ointment. The first:  Rasmussen reports that anti-Obama sentiment in Texas in the highest of any state. The second: anti-incumbent fever is high. Does one negate the other? Can White squeeze through the narrow gap between the two to win?

14 comments on “Rick Perry, Bill White Tied, New Poll Says

  1. Do I trust the polls as much as I used to? Heck, no. Margin of error is worse than ever.

    Is it too early to focus on the data? Heavens, yes.

  2. Public Policy is an exclusively Dem and Labor (as if there is any difference, but I digress) shop and uses robocall and touch-tone voting. The survey was done from Friday the 18th through Monday the 21st. Does anybody (except really, really lonely folks) answer the phone to an unknown caller ID over the weekend? Count me as dubious.

  3. Growing up, two flies in the ointment meant maggots to follow. What about the third issue, that people might just be sick of Perry more than anything else?

  4. Perry has been on the public payroll for how long now? Almost 26 years in a row? That puts him in a very small group of elected officials anywhere in the country. There aren’t even more than a handful of the 435 U.S. House members who currently have such lineage, I don’t think. And he’s been governor for 10 years, surely a senior ranking among the 50 states today, and wants four more.

    Being hard right for years made it politically easier for Perry to co-opt the Tea Party movement as he seeks yet another ride on the Reading. Speaking of which, a reading of the assets that have gone in and out of his longtime “blind trust” would probably be an eye-opener.

    Mark Twain wrote this:

    “Some men worship rank, some worship heroes, some worship power, some worship God, & over these ideals they dispute & cannot unite — but they all worship money.”
    - Mark Twain’s Notebook

  5. I’d discount the “anti-incumbent” theory. That’s the spin on a very-real anti-RINO, anti-Democrat reaction.

    But people win when voters want to vote FOR someone. Methinks folks weren’t all voting against KBH. That’s bad news for Mr. White.

  6. It’s early. Two flies unmentioned is the oil spill in the gulf and the contamination caused by the natural gas industry here in north Texas.

    If the allegations of “Gas Land” are substantiated we might see a bunch of conservatives who think having their kids breath clean air and drink good water turn on the republicans and their big-business-is good mantra.

    Pickens might end up doing something good for America yet.

  7. Rasmussen is widely regarded as the most accurate pollster. I wouldn’t take much stock in PPP.

  8. Do his exorbitant digs count as a fly? One thing’s for sure, you could throw one hell of a tea party in it.

  9. Oh, puuuulllleeeezzzzze! Let it be true! (fingers & other appendages crossed)

  10. There is a ZERO percent chance that White beats Perry this fall. Let’s be real, people.