Â Rasmussen says 53 percent approve of the job Perry is doing; Public PolicyÂ pegs his approval atÂ 36 percent. If Rasmussen is right, Perry has made an improbably Â strong comeback from the 39 percent of the vote he got in 2006. If Public Policy is more accurate with a number closer to the percentage Perry actually achieved four years ago, White has a real shot at winning the thing.
So which poll is right? It depends on who captured the best group of “likely voters.” Rasmussen provides no information on how it screens. Public Policy says it only approaches people who voted at least once in the last three elections., which seems generous for a mid-term election.Â On the other hand, Rasmussen had been criticized in the polling industry for using automated calls and is often regarded as an outlier. I don’t see any information on how Public Policy conducted its poll.
There are twoÂ flies in the ointment. The first: Â Rasmussen reports that anti-Obama sentiment in Texas in the highest of any state.Â The second: anti-incumbent fever is high. Does one negate the other? Can White squeeze through the narrow gap between the two to win?