The folks over at Time are prognosticating on Bill White’s chances of beating Gov. Rick Perry, and they’ve asked University of Houston political scientist Richard Murray and local go-to political question-answerer person Cal Jillson of SMU to assess the race.
In short, Murray’s got a bit of a rosier outlook, pointing to White’s fluency in Spanish, his deep-pocketed donors and his base in Houston. Jillson is less convinced, pointing to Texas’ historical tendency to vote Republican by as much as a 10 point margin.
As I’ve said before elsewhere, Perry is beatable. He’s got plenty to be confronted about, and he’s also lost the thing that helped him win over Kay Bailey Hutchison – Washington. Without being able to pin his opponent to Washington, and subsequently blame for every evil thing, Perry may have to do a little more nimble dancing to avoid being pinned as the governor that was in office when the state faced a potential $11B budget shortfall, who probably should’ve let Todd Willingham have a new trial, and whose universally-reviled legacy project – the Trans Texas Corridor – has bit the dust.
I mean, sure, he can and already has tried to paint White as an Obama advisor and Washington insider, but it’s going to be a little harder to really pound those dots like it was with Hutchison.
So … does White stand a chance?
18 comments
Yes, he has a chance.
White has to distance from Obama/Reid/Pelosi; regardless of how he feels about them. Failure to do so will allow Perry to whip up his base using guilt by party association.
He should try to make hay with Perry’s cronyism – like meddling in the Willingham investigation and at A&M.
White also needs to hope and draw Perry off-sides a-la Medina on 9/11. If Perry is a birther White can use it to whip up his base.
This is wishful thinking. Perry just (soundly) defeated a very popular politician. Most Texans support the death penalty. The Trans Texas Corridor is a non-starter. The economy here is good compared to other states. White is an earnest milquetoast type running in a Republican year. His chances of winning are slim to none.
Perry beat a politician that didn’t really try, at least not outwardly. Other than the debates, I never saw her face or heard her tell me what she would do for me as a Texan, save a last minute commercial or two. And those commercials only told me why not to vote for Perry. Got the memo a long time ago, Kay. Now back to you… You can’t ride on the hate coattails and expect to win on that alone.
I really hope Bill White gets out in the public and connects with voters. I don’t know if I can take another term of Perry. His hair is great and all, but we need more than that.
If everyone who is sick and tired of Rick Perry’s antics (secession, toll roads, trans TX Corridor) voted for the very moderate, intelligent, and effective Bill White, Mayor White would win.
A multi-millionaire plaintiff’s lawyer in the Governor’s Mansion? (Think John Edwards with less hair.) Yeah, that’s just bound to work great.
But Glenn, you can support the death penalty and still believe an innocent person may have been executed. It’s the latter I’m talking about, and the latter even the most ardent supporter of the death penalty may be squeamish about.
A relatively recent Gallup poll showed that nearly 57% of those surveyed still supported the death penalty even though they also thought an innocent person may have been executed. Nearly 40% who believed an innocent person may have been executed did not support the death penalty.
Even a supporter of the death penalty would take issue with that possibility. It only provides ammunition for those against the death penalty, and only shores up arguments that at the very least a moratorium on executions should be called for the time being.
You’re right that no one–death penalty supporter or opponent–wants an innocent to die, Bethany. I’m just saying that this is very much a pro-death-penalty state and I don’t think it’s an issue with traction for White. (I also think the Willingham case was distorted/manipulated big-time in order to promote the “anti” agenda.)
I can support the death penalty again, when:
1) The office of appeals agrees to stay open beyond 5 o’clock to hear anything final.
2) The testifying “expert witness” is really educated in the field they are testifying towards.
3) The prosecuting attorney is not schtooping the judge on the sly.
4) The defendant is given adequate and competent representation to recognize that the above is or is not happening and to file the appropriate protests in the name of justice.
If the Willingham case was so distorted in the media, then wouldn’t the commission have been the perfect place to prove those naysayers wrong?
I’m just uncomfortable with shutting everything down (in a VERY hamhanded manner) instead of letting the process come to completion.
It is clear that Perry thinks he can do no wrong, and has no qualms about taking any actions he sees fit, not matter if his actions look ethical or not.
I can support the death penalty when:
1. A man sets fire to his house when his three daughters are inside
2. He leaves his three year old in his bed under the covers while he flees the burning house
3. He leaves his one year old twins on the floor of their room where the fire started blocked in by a gate in the doorway
4. He is more concerned with his car burning than his daughters burning to death
5. He confesses to his ex-wife that he did it because she was dumping him
6. He confesses to his step mother and father that he lied to the police
7. He has a history of family violence including punching his pregnant girl friend in the stomach to try to kill the baby
and I’m even willing to overlook the fact that the “scientists” that came in with “evidence” that the fire was not arson were anti-Perry and anti-death penalty zealots.
Yes, Perry is beatable…..I hear from may precent judges they saw deomcrats crossing lines to vote for Perry in primary, They knew
White could beat Perry, it would be a little harder for him to beat Kay.. Texas has had enough of Perry and his raw deals for tax payers
my parents (who are Republican as the day is long) told me that they were voting for Bill White. in my mind, that is a sure sign that Perry can be defeated. also possibly a sign of the apocolypse.
Ha ha ha, no. Perry is going to wipe the floor with White.
White has no chance… Let’s be honest here, Perry is going to win this thing by 10%+… Dems are going to take a beating in the 2010 elections- and White will be viewed no differently than Obama, Pelosi etc… It’s just a fact. In the 2010 elections, a Dem is a Dem is a Dem!
White has stepped into a political ring he does not understand. Perry will spend millions defining this guy for the voters. White will rehash old arguments that failed to defeat Perry. Perry will win with ease unless something totally unforseen happens.
U gotta love White for trying, but the only way Perry loses is if they catch him in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.
All Perry has to do is to connect White in any way with anyone like Shummer, Kerry, Dodd, Reid, Polosi, Durban, or Leahay. Just a picture showing him with one of them will do! These are all scum-bags, that all Texans litterally hate!
I sure hope not, but I’m afraid he does. The problem is that the rest of Texas doesn’t know Bill White like Houstonians know him. He IS NOT a moderate. He is a lilly livered illegal loving liberal. I hate to have to vote Perry back in, but I have no choice. I would NEVER vote for Bill White… never,never,never.