This is the shakiest prediction in the history of meteorology. But here’s the thing: I have a friend who follows some unnamed sports blog (behind a pay wall) on which a regular commenter often makes weather predictions. This commenter will oftentimes point out that he doesn’t trust our local forecasters, who, he says, use some computer models that fail us under certain circumstances. For instance, you’ll recall that a week or so prior to the Big Snow, our local forecasters were saying we wouldn’t get much white stuff, and the stuff we did get wasn’t going to stick. Our Mystery Forecaster said our local weatherfolk were wrong. And they were.
Well, now our Mystery Forecaster is calling for a “significant snow event” for the middle of next week. You heard it here first. Or you heard it on that unnamed sports blog first. Whatever. (Note: If it doesn’t snow like crazy next week, I’m deleting this post.)
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Dear Mr. Rogers,
Having received a proper Thomist (i.e., Catholic) education, you are perhaps aware of Aristotle’s law of the excluded middle. Next week, either it will snow OR it won’t. No other possibility.
Are you a betting man? What are the chances of your being correct?
The Good Professor
Steve McCauley was talking this possibility up on WFAA late last week…Said there were some models that predicted snow, others not so much.
I heard that Cindy Crawford and Paulina Porzikova were predicting a few flurries but those models are probably pretty old by now.
Cool story, bro.
Yea, tell it again!
@Chris Chris: Good work. Solid.
I think the whole “computer model” shtick, is just one big excuse for the weatherpeople to claim plausible deniability when they are outright wrong. When I was sawing up branches, mopping dried mud off my floor, and replacing all the spoiled food in my refrigerator, and I finally turned on the television after having no power for three days I heard one of the weathercasters say “Well, the computer models were not predicting such a significant snow event.”
To me, that’s kind of like when I blame my GPS system for being late to some meeting even though I know there will be a significant traffic event on Woodall Rogers at 8 a.m.
My drinking downpour predicts a few flurries, and a possible model.
Tim..it couldn’t be worse than the trained pro’s.
Cheers