Is The Commercial Real Estate Shoe About To Drop?

Knowledgeable investors in the commercial real estate business have been telling me for the last two months that the recession’s full effects have not yet been felt. Yesterday’s news about Victory’s refinancing — and loss of ownership control — of its developed high-rise properties is, according to them, only an early indicator. Many Dallas properties are being “artificially bucked up” by their owners, including insurance companies and pension funds, so that they do not have to report a loss of value. The time for buying, I’m told, will be in the late fall, when those artificial values are no longer sustainable and there will come a rush to unload.