Dallas Mavericks’ Season Preview

I haven’t given up on the Cowboys’ season yet. That said, I am an unapologetic passenger on the ‘Boys bandwagon, so the losses haven’t affected me too much. (Teams I am in the tank for, in order: Dallas Mavericks, UT football, UT basketball, any Real World/Road Rules Challenge squad featuring Abram or a sober CT. Everything else is strictly casual.) Since Team No. 1 is just about ready to go, let’s stop down for some hardcore basketball talk.

Since Mark Cuban bought the Mavericks, they have always performed better when they were seen as underdogs. After being spanked by the Sacramento Kings repeatedly, no one really expected them to return the favor in the 2003 playoffs, but they did, producing one of the Top 5 moments of my life (Game 2’s record-setting thrashing, during which it probably appeared as though I was being paid to deliver chest bumps to strangers high up in the rafters of the AAC) as well as earning Nick Van Exel name-check status in a Jay-Z rhyme.

But when they are the favorites, everything kind of falls apart. (See: 2007’s scalping by the Warriors.) The 2006 Finals run is probably the best example of that dichotomy: as underdogs to the Spurs, they stepped up in a big way. Favored over the Heat, they buckled like a belt. So as far as I’m concerned, the fact that many NBA pundits are predicting the Mavs will either tumble into the lottery or just squeak into the playoffs is a good thing. For the first time since maybe 2005, the Mavs have the element of surprise. I like it.

Also good: Avery Johnson is gone. Now, don’t get me wrong–Avery was an excellent coach. But he is the kind of coach (like Larry Brown) with a shelf life. You need a guy like him to set a standard. Eventually, however, everyone will tune him out, and he’s gotta go. Adam brought up an interesting idea the other day: Avery didn’t have enough distance from his playing days, going from player to head coach in less than a season. I think there’s merit to that, especially in light of how he handled his old position (point guard). I like that they didn’t replace Avery with a so-called player’s coach. In fact, Rick Carlisle is sort of like what I imagine Avery can be in a few years, after he’s learned a bit of humility.

There are still concerns. They haven’t had a good starting shooting guard since before Michael Finley died. I’m not sure Antoine Wright is the answer, but at least Carlisle is trying to find out. (Avery must have forgotten Wright was included in the Jason Kidd trade.) Josh Howard is coming off a summer of controversy, and a not-great finish to last season. Kidd has the whiff of decomposition to him. And Devean George remains on the team.

I think Josh bounces back. I think Kidd will not be great, but solid might be enough. If some of the other offseason acquisitions pan out, or I figure a way around the restraining order, George might not see much playing time.

More than anything, I’m excited because of what happened to Dirk after Kidd was brought in, and what could happen now that he’s free from Avery. I think he could turn into a hybrid of Nellie Dirk (freewheeling, three-shooting, crazy, uncomfortable low fist-pumping) and Avery Dirk (living at the elbow, playing more of an all-around game, crazy, uncomfortable low fist-pumping). That is still a player that plenty of teams have a hard time matching up with.

So what do I think? 50-32 sounds right. But remember: I am absolutely, 100 percent, season-ticket-having in the tank for the Mavs. Take that with the same grain of salt you would when you see my NCAA bracket every year, with UT on top.