Is Victory Park a Success or Not?
Several commenters to my earlier post about Ron Kirk getting all high-fivey over the success of Victory have said quite the contrary: Victory ain’t a success. They cite two bits of proof: 1) declining liquor sales and 2) rent subsidies. Let’s take a close look at the former. The following numbers are for sales in August, September, and October.
Ghostbar — $444,561 — $553,876 — $591,954
Kenichi — $127,378 — $97,413 — $104,457
N9NE — $189,768 — $157,009 — $209,762
Nove — $128,978 — $86,589 — $98,243
Victory Tavern — $39,602 — $51,036 — $81,692
I don’t see a downward trend here, at least not over that three-month period. Now, Ghostbar is down year-to-yea, about 25 percent (the other places are too young to have year-to-year data). But Ghostbar is a weird animal. Their October 2007 liquor sales could have been inflated by one huge convention. It’s also possible that half a mil in sales is their sweet spot, and the higher numbers from a year ago were the result of curiosity. All the people who were only ever going to visit once have gotten that visit behind them. Maybe these numbers are all below projections. That would be cause for concern. But I don’t see declines.
As for rent subsidies (a year free, or charging a percentage of sales), that’s only a problem if it wasn’t in the business plan to begin with. And I suspect it was. That’s how you build a critical mass of retailers. Tenants attract other tenants. You have to sweeten the deal to get those first storefronts filled.
16 Comments to “Is Victory Park a Success or Not?”
Leave a Reply
All material copyright © 2009 D Magazine. All rights reserved.
Nonsensical string of data. August is arguably the busiest month of the year for restaurants, while September is the slowest. Wait for 2 years of data, or the for lease sign in the windows.
I run a multiple award winning dining joint in town and I have spent the last nine years helping to man the helm at several of Dallas’ most talked about restaurants, and I am stunned by these numbers. We all knew that they were well below expectations, but these numbers are relatively shocking. Are the numbers actual sales figures or just derivatives based on the publicly accessible TABC receipts?
In our business, as much or more so than any other industry, it isn’t a matter of what you make, but what you keep. I can tell you, almost for a fact, that the fixed costs to operate the above restaurants either exceed or brush right up against the numbers you have given. (except Ghostbar which I would imagine is still extremely profitable despite their aforementioned issues) All of these spots have well performing siblings in other markets that can help subsidize the Victory Park locations, but they better all hope for a robust Mavs/Stars playoff run ( or 10 dates each from Radiohead and Hannah Montana), or some of these guys may not see Jan ‘09.
bottom line: these numbers are a bummer.
Timmy, I agree with Holy Crap. (That’s weird.) Compare N9NE with MiCocina Highland Park. Those kind of numbers for a high-end steak joint are not healthy.
I’m in Victory Park several times a week at different times of the day. The retailers are virtually empty. The restaurants are sparsely populated at lunch, and up or down in the evening depending on event traffic. The place is like a ghost town. I don’t see a single business there with the activity level of a “home run.” I hope it ends up being a success. It’s not there yet.
This is Dallas, remember,
Some of these guys will not be here to see 09.
I wonder what will be built there in ten years when it’s torn down to make way for the latest and greatest.
hmmmm
Holy Crap, I thought I made it clear: those numbers are for liquor sales only. Nancy, here are the numbers from Mi Cocina, HP, for comparison:
$174,227 — $150,496 — $160,615
High-end steak joints, you say? Al Biernat’s:
$247,876 — $208,346 — $241,422
If Victory Park is a failure, it will be because everything is so high end. Why can’t new development in Dallas ever be geared towards the regular consumer? Who wants to hang out in fancy restaurants prior to sporting events? Who wants to eat at a high-end steak house for lunch? Are there any shopping options for people who don’t need personal shoppers and champagne service? How about a funky music store or bookstore? You gotta turn Victory Park into a place where people go to hang out. Not a place that’s reserved for special occassions. Victory Park needs to become like the 16th street mall in downtown Denver. It’s not a special destination for residents. It’s just a part of their everyday lives.
O.K. I figured those digits were, in fact, alcohol sales. Nonetheless, since alcohol sales metrics are traditionally projected to be 35-40% of overall sales, these business aren’t in as much peril as I first thought. Nove’s and Victory Tavern’s numbers, however, still couldn’t possibly be adding up to much (if any) profitability.
Anyone ever hear about what happened to the lawsuit between Admiral Linen and N9NE Group?
I think that Victory Park, Willow Bend Mall, and Il Mulino all serve as a lesson to developers and other richies about our gilded city. I am a hometown boy who wants nothing more than for these places to succeed here, but alas, here we are in reality.
The question will be what happens when the offices there are full. A lawyer told me last night his downtown firm wanted to move in, but they’re all sold out. By ‘09, we’ll have a clearer picture. For now, yes, you can go down there on any non-game night and conduct a flag football game in most establishments.
one of the fundamental tenets:
**Residents/work force must precede entertainment!** Despite this city’s love affair with dining, the stats indicate that “destination dining” has had trouble getting a foot hold here. Ask yourself about the restaurant’s you dine in regularly and their proximity to your home or your office. You most likely have about a 6 mile radius from either location.
I agree that this project will ultimately succeed. As a matter of fact there is very little question in my mind that it will ultimately succeed. The question was, as to it success up to this point.
and believe me, as someone who has experience in this situation, the last thing any of the money guys who blazed this trail and put their reputations and dough on the line to open these restaurants, want to hear is that things will be great in summer of ‘09.
god love ‘em and here’s to the hope that their pockets are deep enough to navigate this unexpected ravine.
Romo?
The execution of the Victory Park project has been shockingly poor. In addition to the ill-conceived retail tenanting plan (high end swimsuit shop between N9NE and Nove with no visibility from the street… anyone? anyone?) the traffic engineering/parking plan appears to have been non-existant.
In many ways, this development appears to have been poorly supervised. It is as if someone with no experience just hired a bunch of architects and retail leasing agents and said “have at it, boys… just let me know when it’s done! Oh, just be sure to include some really cool restaurants that I’ve visited on trips to Vegas, etc. and if they say no, just throw money at them in the form of free rent and tenant improvements until it becomes a free option on their part.”
Ain’t it great building a city!
Coming from someone who actually works in a restaurant within Victory Park, I can honestly say that it has been a struggle over the last year. Our company decided early on that it was necessary to get in early to secure our place in the project. We new full well that the first year would be very difficult as far as exposure, repeat business, overall traffic levels, etc. However, as many people have mentioned prior, it takes time to build all of it. Can it be considered a success? Of course! We are employing hundreds of people within all of the properties, allowing them to create and grow their lives. We are generating much needed revenue for the city that has turned its back on year round sports. We are looking to the future to secure conventions, citywide meetings, and give people around the US and abroad and option when they want to travel, conduct business, or possibly vacation. Results cannot be summarized and a final decision cannot certainly be made at this time. You must look at what has been accomplished and what progress has been made. You must also understand that in a world of “instant satisfaction,” the “satisfaction” has to be measured over the course of years, not months and especially not days.
Give it time or get a job down here. Your choice.
Willow Bend Mall–I live near it, and wow what a disappointment. The closed Lord&Taylor store still stands empty. To do a quick fix and try to draw some people, they put a “play area” in front of the closed L&T, which is as weirdly out of place as a dixie cup in a china shop. Our fear in this area is that the whole thing will close up and become a blight, a ghostown.
I think SB got it right. What these people do not get is that there needs to be multiple layers of restaurants and retail. It can’t be all high end. All high end means no good people watching. No good people watching means no fun. Going to Victory Park is like standing in front of Sangria on a Friday night except there is about half the people. I’m doing pretty good but go to a Mavs game and have to eat at at some outrageous overpriced average restaurant,(like all of the ones in VP), it’s a beating. Give me more options, I might go there more.
The numbers don’t lie. Sales at N9NE and Nove have been disappointing, and are far below expectations (source: one of the many former managers). There are three reasons: bad location, bad timing, bad management. There is nothing anyone can do about the first two, and the last one…well, with an annual turnover in management ranks that exceeds 100%, that fact speaks for itself. The latest rumor on the street (heard from a longstanding Dallas restaurant owner) is that Nove Italiano is soon scheduled to close. It has been open barely one year. Whether or not that rumor is true remains to be seen. If it is NOT true, it’s only a matter of time.